Sony’s Stellar Blade is an upcoming, AAA action RPG (ARPG) with Soulslike elements from Korean studio Shift Up, which is set for full release on April 26. The game is a PlayStation 5 exclusive – as was recent release, and fellow ARPG, Final Fantasy VII (FFVII) Rebirth – and it has attracted considerable interest for not just its character design (which has proven divisive) but also its polished gameplay and performance.

The console and PC games markets are currently awash with ARPGs, with a number of these emerging from Asian studios. Dragon’s Dogma 2 and Rise of the Ronin were just two new additions to the genre in March, garnering upwards of 2m monthly active users (MAUs) and just shy of 1m MAUs respectively according to Ampere’s Games Analytics data; plus the hotly-anticipated new Elden Ring DLC is set for release in June. Clearly there is increasing competition in this space, but at the moment, the consumer appetite for APRGs seems to continue to match, or even outpace, relevant content releases.  

Daily active user numbers for the Stellar Blade demo, which launched at the end of March, have more than doubled those seen for the FFVII Rebirth demo (note: FFVII Rebirth launch DAUs include demo players). The chart demonstrates a launch performance which would match that of FFVII Rebirth; but this is likely a best-case scenario. The hype surrounding Stellar Blade – largely focused on its character models - may have resulted in inflated interest in the demo, and the rate of conversion to paying, launch users could easily fall short of what we have seen for its competitors.

Despite some similarities in genre, style, and therefore potential audience, Stellar Blade and FFVII Rebirth represent quite different commercial cases. FFVII Rebirth is based on an established classic with a deep-rooted fandom – plus, it is a sequel, rather than a standalone game. It is therefore unlikely that quite as many demo players were drawn simply by curiosity or hype, and conversion in that case is likely to be more predictable, and hearty. Stellar Blade, on the other hand, is a brand-new IP with no pre-existing fandom, making its performance a great deal more difficult to project.