Netflix is paying a reported $150m for exclusive rights to two NFL 2024 Christmas Day games – Chiefs vs. Steelers and Ravens vs. Texans – in addition to at least one Christmas day game for 2025 and 2026 as part of the three-season deal. While Netflix’s recent deal with WWE sits on the dividing line of entertainment and sports, this NFL deal is the streaming giant’s first major foray into traditional live sports, bar original productions like The Netflix Cup (a pro-celebrity golf tournament) and the Netflix Slam.  

With the NFL the most popular of all US sports leagues, enjoyed by 44% of all US sports fans – compared to 32% and 26% for the NBA and MLB respectively – it makes sense for Netflix to look for a beachhead into a market currently worth $125bn. However, with the majority of NFL broadcasting rights tied up until at least 2030, what space is left in the market for Netflix for the next six years, and how might NFL rights help widen its appeal?

An unusual element of this deal between the NFL and Netflix is its global nature – meaning that the two games in question (and future Christmas Day games covered by the same deal) will be available to Netflix subscribers worldwide, and not just those in the US. However, given the size of the domestic rights market and the avidity of its NFL fans, the US will account for the vast majority (95%) of the value of this deal. However,  according to Ampere’s consumer data, 78% of those in the US willing to pay for the NFL already have Netflix. Consequently, a substantial uptick of subscribers within the US seems unlikely. 

This is also relevant internationally, as 72% of those willing to pay to watch the NFL in countries excluding the US and China already have Netflix. Moreover, the NFL’s following outside the US is still relatively small, with the NFL ranking 20th in sports competitions followed, with only 8% of non-US sports fans following the league. By comparison, the NBA is enjoyed by 18% of non-US sports fans, and is the fourth-most popular league internationally. 

But while Netflix may not gain many new subscribers from this NFL deal, the games may function as a popular alternative to its other Christmas content, while also helping to reduce subscriber churn rates domestically. And with Netflix being the largest SVOD service in the US as well as globally, the partnership is also beneficial to the NFL when considering how the streamer’s expansive reach may be key to engaging future fans both at home and abroad.