The launch of Grand Theft Auto VI is likely to break all launch sales records for games and broader entertainment when it hits the market in late 2025. But while this is the case for initial full game sales, the key question for the long-term future of the franchise and publisher Take-Two’s ongoing commercial performance is how Rockstar Games intends to manage the transition of the existing GTA Online audience to the new experience and platform. GTA VI is confirmed to be launching on PS5 and Xbox Series in 2025 and as yet there has been no mention of next-gen Nintendo or PC versions.

GTA Online is the engagement engine behind GTA V

According to Ampere Games – Analytics data, GTA V together with GTA Online regularly engages over 20m players every month across PlayStation, Xbox and Steam platforms – with 25m in Jun-24 following the release of the latest update Bottom Dollar Bounties. The consistency of its performance reflects Rockstar’s successful transition of the franchise to a live-service experience alongside recurring in-game monetisation. PS4 remains the most active platform by some distance, with millions also playing on Xbox One and Steam. 

By the time the new game launches more GTA V/Online gamers will have transitioned to the latest consoles from PS4s and Xbox Ones, yet there is likely to still be a noteworthy share of players across the older devices and on PC. As such, Ampere expects Rockstar to continue operating GTA Online for the foreseeable future, but this will mean maintaining multiple communities as the user base is split following the launch of GTA VI. 

Rockstar has never previously been faced with this sort of transitional challenge, although parent company Take-Two more broadly has deep expertise across its live service sports franchises, which regularly shift audiences to new annual releases. The ongoing commercial importance of the GTA franchise leaves very little room for error in transitioning and supporting its loyal audience as the new game launches.

Managing multiple communities and potential ways forward

While there has been no confirmation of GTA VI Online, we also don’t expect the new game to launch without a roadmap for online play, as this is key to long-term engagement and commercial longevity. This will result in maintaining two live service GTA experiences for at least several years post launch. Running these experiences in parallel will be a resource heavy and complex challenge, but the original GTA Online has the advantage of acting as a key funnel for gamers to transition across to the new platform so will be an important user acquisition channel. 

From launch, it is likely that today’s GTA Online will be de-prioritised to an extent as the resource focus shifts to GTA VI Online, but while both games are running Take-Two will be looking to maintain a consistent revenue stream from recurring in-game and premium subscription spending across both experiences. 

There have been a few examples where a new version of a live service game replaces the existing one for a rapid transition: Overwatch 2 and Counter-Strike 2 are recent examples (although you can still download and access the legacy CS:GO application for the time being). This approach wouldn’t work for GTA Online because of the device support challenge already mentioned, the persistent and ongoing nature of the gameplay experience and the completely different settings of GTA V and GTA VI. 

Rockstar already manages communities across its different games through the Rockstar Games Social Club (recently renamed Rockstar Games Platform) and this will play a critical role in pulling together GTA’s increasingly fragmented audience in the future. We expect this platform to evolve over the next 12 months to support what is set to be one of Take-Two’s biggest ever commercial challenges.